Tropical Cyclone Analysis In The Philippines

2010-01-25T09:23:00.000-08:00

850 hPa CIRCULATION (kt)

2010-01-21T22:59:00.000-08:00

Latest Satellite Imagery (PAGASA)

24-Hour Water Vapor Loop

T2k Graphical Satellite Analysis

Tropical Cyclone Formation Areas Of Interest

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability

Tropical Depression 01W (UNNAMED)

2010-01-18T21:02:00.001-08:00

Images:

WV

ColorIR

NOAA

ViR

Tracks:

01W (ONE) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 [INITIAL]
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 19 January 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #001
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010) The strong disturbance WSW of Palawan or off the Southernmost part of the South China Sea has become the 1st Tropical Cyclone of 2010...Tropical Depression 01W (UNNAMED) organizing as it heads WNW and threatens Southern Vietnam.

*Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of 01W.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue Jan 19 2010
Location of Center: 8.2º N Lat 110.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 500 km (270 nm) SE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 2: 925 km (498 nm) WSW of Puerto Princesa
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Southern Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Jan 19

+ Forecast Outlook: 01W is expected to continue moving WNW, closer to the Southern Coast of Vietnam. This system may reach minimal Tropical Storm strength later tonight (8PM Jan 19: 9.5N 107.8E) and will make landfall early tomorrow morning, Jan 20th, passing some 40 km. south of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). It will be over the Vietnam-Cambodia boundary tomorrow morning (8AM Jan 20: 10.8N 105.5E) as a dissipating TD, passing close to Phnom Penh in the afternoon (Jan 20). Complete dissipation of 01W can be expected by tomorrow evening along the mountains of Cambodia. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 01W's strong rainbands now spreading and affecting SE and Southern Vietnam...Moderate to heavy rains can be expected. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rainshowers can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, EASTERN VISAYAS AND EASTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate cool northeasterly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected along these areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TD 01W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0110.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

2010-01-09T03:43:00.000-08:00

Active System in the Western Pacific might develop based on the latest numerical data issued by ECMWF

2010-01-08T05:58:00.000-08:00

No TCF at this time.

2010-01-05T06:21:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Tail-end of a cold front affecting Eastern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Eastern section of Luzon will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas

Wishing Happy Prosperous New Year

2009-12-31T06:12:00.000-08:00

Lets welcome the new year with joy, happiness, positive outlook in life !!!!!!!!!!!!

SYPNOSIS:

Moderate to strong Northeasterly surface windflow affecting Luzon. Tail-end of a cold front affecting Visayas.

FORECAST:

Visayas and Northern Mindanao will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming widespread rains over Visayas which may trigger flashfloods or landslides. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas and coming from the East and Northeast over Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas.

NE Windflow across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas

2009-12-30T07:29:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Moderate to strong northeasterly surface windflow affecting Luzon. Wind convergence affecting Eastern Visayas and Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Eastern Visayas and Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas and coming from the East and Northeast over Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast with slight to moderate seas.

Special Weather Outlook for the New Year Holidays

2009-12-29T07:18:00.000-08:00

FORECAST:

Northern and Eastern Luzon will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while Eastern Visayas and Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas and coming from the East and Northeast over Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas.

Special Weather Outlook for the New Year Holidays

The tail-end of cold front is likely to still prevail over Visayas and Mindanao which will bring scattered rainshowers becoming widespread rains in the eastern section of these areas on Thursday and Friday (Dec. 31 and Jan. 01). However, rain activity will gradually shift towards Bicol region by Saturday and Sunday (Jan. 02 and 03). For the rest of the country, good weather condition with isolated or passing light rains is expected to persist throughout the outlook period. Cooler temperatures associated with the northeast monsoon (Amihan) will also continue to be experienced in the country especially in Luzon area.

Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will still prevail over Luzon and Visayas and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Small sea crafts and fishing vessels are advised to be alert against moderate to high waves along the seaboards of Luzon and Eastern Visayas generated by the northeastely winds.

DOST-PAGASA is providing this special weather outlook to give guidance to the public in their travel plans during the peak of the new year holidays.

This outlook will be updated as soon as significant changes in the weather occur.

For more information, please contact the forecaster-on-duty in the following telephone numbers: 927-1541/927-1335/926-4258.

Courtesy of: PAGASA

2009-12-28T04:25:00.000-08:00

Weather Update

2009-12-27T06:37:00.000-08:00

WEATHER UPDATE

2009-12-26T05:37:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Cold front affecting Extreme Northern Luzon. Wind convergence affecting Eastern Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Extreme Northern Luzon will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas.

Latest ECMWF forecast to have an active system before the year ends

2009-12-25T06:26:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Moderate to strong Northeasterly surface windflow affecting Luzon and Visayas. Tail end of a cold front affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Extreme Northern Luzon will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over the country and the coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

2009-12-24T08:57:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas. Diffused tail-end of a cold front affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Luzon and Eastern Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while Mindanao will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over the country and the coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

One or two active system might develop before the year ends

2009-12-23T06:25:00.000-08:00

Based on the latest model issued by ECMWF, one or two active system might develop over the Pacific Ocean before the year ends. More updates as long as the model data issued by the agency remains the same.

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas. Diffused tail-end of a cold front affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Luzon and Eastern Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while Mindanao will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas.

Tropical Cyclone Formation is not expected through Christmas Day, December 25, 2009

2009-12-22T07:12:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast monsoon associated with moderate to strong northeasterly windflow affecting Luzon and Visayas. Diffused tail-end of a cold front affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Luzon and Eastern Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while Mindanao will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

WEATHER UPDATE

2009-12-21T04:18:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Diffused tail-end of a cold front affecting Eastern Mindanao. Northeast monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas.

FORECAST:

Luzon and Eastern Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

WEATHER UPDATE

2009-12-20T06:44:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Diffused tail-end of a cold front affecting Eastern Mindanao. Moderate to strong Northeasterly surface windflow prevailing over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Northern Luzon and the Eastern Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains. Eastern Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

2009-12-16T06:08:00.000-08:00

Tropical Disturbance 91W now upgraded to fair

2009-12-16T00:00:00.001-08:00

DISCUSSION:

An area of convection has persisted near 6.0n 178.9e,
approximately 675 nm east-southeast of kwajalein. Recent animated
multispectral satellite imagery shows low level cloud lines wrapping
cyclonically beneath a small, but persistent area of symmetric deep
convection. A 151712z ssmis microwave image reveals weak to moderate
banding associated with a well-defined low level circulation center
that is easily identifiable in 37h as a small eye-like feature.
Upper level analysis indicates low to moderate vertical wind shear
and favorable venting to the north and south of the circulation.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is fair.

Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible before Christmas near the area of Guam.

2009-12-15T06:05:00.000-08:00

Based on the latest numerical data,active system will develop before the Christmas season tracking WNW to NW direction.More data will be issued once the other numerical weather guidance and agency will similar to the progress of the forecast system.

* Prior to change unless the numerical weather data will remain the same.

Weather Update

2009-12-14T04:56:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Diffused tail-end of a cold front affecting Eastern Visayas.

FORECAST:

Southern Luzon and the whole Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Northern and Eastern Luzon and over the whole Visayas and coming from the Northeast and East over Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

ECMWF shows two possible active TC next week.

2009-12-13T05:44:00.000-08:00

ECMWF Forecasts to have a 1 active system on Dec.17-21,2009

2009-12-11T19:24:00.000-08:00

Based on the latest model issued, there is a possibility that one active system will develop between Dec.18-21,2009. It is forecast to moved and the potential track area might be the Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

* Prior to change unless if the numerical data on the next issue will remain the same.

Weakening Tail-end of a Cold Front affecting Eastern Luzon

2009-12-11T05:10:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

At 2 p.m. today, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 860 kms East of Mindanao (7.0°N 135.0°E). Tail end of a cold front affecting the Eastern section of Northern and Central Luzon.

FORECAST:

The Eastern section of Luzon and Visayas and whole of Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the Northeast to North with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Northeast Monsoon affecting Eastern Luzon & Bicol...becoming more rainy over Catanduanes and Coastal Camarines & Albay.

2009-12-09T07:20:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

At 2:00 p.m. today, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated in the vicinity of Tagbiliran City (09.7°N, 123.9°E). Northeast monsoon affecting Northern and Eastern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Southern Luzon and Visayas will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas, and coming from the Northeast to Northwest over Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the Northeast to Northwest with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.
(in Filipino)

Tropical Disturbance 90w now weakening

2009-12-08T04:24:00.000-08:00

As of 5 p.m.

Weakening LPA (90W/1006 MB) moved SW-ward closer to the coast of Surigao
or near 9.4N 127.6E...about 235 km ESE of Surigao City

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast Monsoon affecting Eastern Luzon, Bicol and Samar...bringing windy and cloudy condition w/ possible passing drizzle or light rains. LPA (90W) bringing widespread rains across Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

Tropical Disturbance 90w rapidly intensifying near the eastern coast of samar within the next 12-24 hours. (JMA raised it as TD)

2009-12-07T23:45:00.000-08:00

As of 1 a.m.

Strong LPA (90W/1005 MB) rapidly developing off the Philippine Sea, east of Samar
or near 11.1N 128.3E...about 320 km ESE of Borongan, E.Samar

Discussion:

the area of convection previously located near 11.2n
129.1e, is now located near 10.9n 128.5e, approximately 490 nm east-
southeast of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery shows a defined low level circulation center (LLCC) with
rapidly weakening convection. However, a 072312z ssmis image depicts
a symmetric LLCC with curved low-level banding wrapping into the
center. An ascat pass showed 15 to 20 knot winds along the
northwestern quadrant of the LLCC, with weaker 10 to 15 knot winds
wrapping into the LLCC along the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level
analysis indicates that the LLCC is located south of the ridge axis
under northeasterly flow. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1006 mb. Based on the defined LLCC, the potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to good. See ref a (wtpn21 pgtw 072330) for
further details.

Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible next week between Dec.14-18,2009

2009-12-07T06:41:00.000-08:00

Based on the latest weather forecast model issued by the year's most reliable weather agency, ECMWF new system might develop early next week due to its favorable environment condition. More models will be issued if this system will develop into a new and active TC.

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast Monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas.

FORECAST:

Luzon and Visayas will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rains. Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas, and coming from the Northwest over Eastern Mindanao. The coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, light to moderate Northeasterly to Northwesterly winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

WEATHER UPDATE

2009-12-06T06:21:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast Monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas.

FORECAST:

Luzon and Visayas will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rains. Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas, and coming from the Northwest over Eastern Mindanao. The coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, light to moderate Northeasterly to Northwesterly winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm 28w (Twenty-eight) now develops heading Iwo To

2009-12-04T22:31:00.000-08:00

At 050000z, tropical storm 28w (twentyeight) was located
near 23.4n 144.6e, approximately 195 nm east-southeast of iwo to,
and had tracked east-northeastward at 18 knots over the past six
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 knots
gusting to 45 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 050300) for the final
warning on this system.

Advisory:

816

wtpn31 pgtw 050300
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical storm 28w (twentyeigh) warning nr 001
upgraded from tropical depression 28w
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
050000z --- near 23.4n 144.6e
movement past six hours - 065 degrees at 18 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
becoming extratropical
repeat posit: 23.4n 144.6e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
051200z --- 26.0n 147.4e
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
extratropical
vector to 24 hr posit: 050 deg/ 24 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
060000z --- 28.9n 151.8e
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
extratropical
---
remarks:
050300z position near 24.1n 145.3e.
Tropical Storm (TS) 28w (twentyeight), located approximately 195 nm
east-southeast of iwo to, has tracked east-northeastward at 18 knots
over the past six hours. Over the last 12 hours, animated infrared
and multispectral satellite imagery show sustained deep convection
near the low level circulation center (LLCC) despite vertical wind
shear in excess of 30 knots. Additionally, a 042039z SSMI microwave
image shows improved wrapping into the system center as well as a
symmetric LLCC. Recent AMSU cross sections also depict the continued
presence of a warm core. At 040000z, Dvorak estimates from pgtw have
come up to 35 knots and knes reported an estimate of 35 knots at
041500z. Ts 28w is currently also showing signs of beginning an
extratropical transition. The warm anomalies in the AMSU cross
sections have dropped from two degrees at 040900z to one degree at
041600z. Additionally, the greatest extent of deep convection has
shifted to the northeast of the system center and total precipitable
water (tpw) products show the intrusion of dry air from the west-
southwest as well as an encroaching frontal zone located to the
northwest. Ts 28w should complete its transition into a baroclinic
system over the next 12 hours as it tracks under increasingly
unfavorable vertical wind shear, over sea surface temperatures less
than 26 degrees celcius, and the inflow of cooler, drier air breaks
down the warm core aloft. This is the final warning on this system
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (navmarfcstcen). The system will
be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. Maximum significant
wave height at 050000z is 12 feet.//

2009-12-03T02:06:00.000-08:00

Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) has started losing convection during the past 6 hours...currently located near lat 15.5N lon 141.9E...or about 385 km NW of Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving North @ 17 kph. This system may develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours.

DISCUSSION:

Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) has started losing convection during the past 6 hours...currently located near lat 15.5N lon 141.9E...or about 385 km NW of Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving North @ 17 kph. This system may develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. W

NIDA (VINTA) weakens into a weak Tropical Depression...will dissipate within the next 12 hours.

2009-12-03T00:44:00.000-08:00

NIDA (VINTA/26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA [VINTA/26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033 [FINAL]
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Thu 03 December 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Final Warning #045 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

NIDA (VINTA) weakens into a weak Tropical Depression...will dissipate within the next 12 hours.

*This is the Final T2K Advisory on NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu Dec 03 2009
Location of Center: 21.7º N Lat 134.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 835 km (450 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,280 km (690 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: NW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Thu Dec 03

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA's exposed, low-level center (1,000-15,000 feet), devoid of cloud convection is expected to continue moving NW into the Northern Philippine Sea in the next 12 hours and dissipate. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: N/A. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center of NIDA. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains can be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate cool northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) has started losing convection during the past 6 hours...currently located near lat 15.5N lon 141.9E...or about 385 km NW of Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving North @ 17 kph. This system may develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. Watch out for a separate page on this disturbance if it becomes a Tropical Cyclone.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TD NIDA (VINTA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2609.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Disturbance 97W is now upgraded to fair.

2009-12-02T04:34:00.000-08:00

the area of convection previously located near 9.2n
148.5e, is now located near 10.4n 147.1e, approximately 235 nm
southeast of Guam. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery
and a 020352z amsub microwave pass reveal weak low level cyclonic
turning to the southeast of Guam. Interrogation of the Guam radar,
more specifically the base velocity product, shows predominately
convergent easterlies corresponding to the deepest, sustained
convection over Guam, with evidence of weak cyclonic turning to the
southeast. A partial 020028z ascat pass also confirms a broad
circulation, with sustained winds possibly as high as 20 knots. As
of 020200z, sea level pressure at Guam was 1005 mb (2 mb 24-hour
pressure fall) and winds were out of the northeast at 15 knots. The
disturbance lies in close proximity to the upper level ridge axis,
which is providing low vertical wind shear and favorable (poleward)
venting. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to fair due to the sea level
pressure trend at Guam, and evidence of a formative low level
circulation center within a mostly favorable environment.

Typhoon NIDA is now being sheared off as strong NE winds affects the system

2009-12-01T23:24:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Wed 02 December 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #041 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon NIDA is now being sheared off as strong NE winds affects the system...its low-level circulation center now tracking WSW, detaching from its mid-level circulation center...will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm later this afternoon.

*Cooler dry air, increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) and slightly lower sea surface temperatures are the ones that contribute for the weakening of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed Dec 02 2009
Location of Eye: 20.7º N Lat 135.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 740 km (400 nm) SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 60 km (33 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,415 km (765 nm) ENE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Wed Dec 02

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA's low-level center (1,000-15,000 feet) is expected to track WSW into the Philippine Sea in the next 2 days and dissipate...while its mid-level center (16,000-30,000 feet) is expected to recurve into the middle latitudes and become an extratropical system. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center of NIDA. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional light rains can be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2609.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Typhoon NIDA continues to weaken as it moves slowly northwestward.

2009-12-01T04:20:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Tue 01 December 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #038 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon NIDA continues to weaken as it moves slowly northwestward.

*Cooler dry air, increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) and slightly lower sea surface temperatures are the ones that contribute for the weakening of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue Dec 01 2009
Location of Eye: 20.5º N Lat 137.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 610 km (330 nm) SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 270 km (145 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,625 km (878 nm) East of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Tue Dec 01

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue moving WNW and weaken fast within the next 2 days. This system will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm tomorrow as cold dry air, increasing upper level winds and cooler sea surface temperatures enters its circulation. It will then start recurving towards the NE on Thursday (2PM Dec 03: 22.9N 135.5E). The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system becoming an Extratropical Cyclone while accelerating NE-ward on Friday (2PM Dec 04: 26.5N 138.0E). This recurvature scenario is due to an appoaching strong middle-latitude low pressure (aka. frontal system) digging from the north. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) just north of NIDA's ill-defined Eye or along the Northern EyeWall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Clear to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains and squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2609.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Typhoon NIDA continues to weaken as it moves slowly northwestward.

2009-12-01T02:08:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 028
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 01 December 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #037 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Typhoon NIDA continues to weaken as it moves slowly northwestward.

*Cooler dry air, increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) and slightly lower sea surface temperatures are the ones that contribute for the weakening of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue Dec 01 2009
Location of Eye: 20.4º N Lat 137.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 600 km (323 nm) SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 300 km (162 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,655 km (893 nm) East of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Dec 01

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue moving WNW and weaken fast within the next 2 days. This system will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning as cold dry air, increasing upper level winds and cooler sea surface temperatures enters and affects its circulation. It will then weaken into a depression while recurving towards the NE on Thursday morning (8AM Dec 03: 23.4N 136.2E). The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system becoming an Extratropical Cyclone while accelerating NE-ward on Friday morning (8AM Dec 04: 27.8N 140.8E). This recurvature scenario is due to an appoaching middle-latitude low pressure (aka. frontal system) digging from the north. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) just north of NIDA's ill-defined Eye or along the Northern EyeWall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains and squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2609.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Typhoon NIDA (26W) still almost stationary but with a very slow drift towards the WNW

2009-11-30T05:07:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Mon 30 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #034 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon NIDA (26W) still almost stationary but with a very slow drift towards the WNW.

*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon Nov 30 2009
Location of Eye: 19.9º N Lat 139.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 595 km (322 nm) SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,760 km (950 nm) ENE of Extreme N.Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft (10.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Mon Nov 30

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue drifting very slowly WNW and will weaken within the next 2 days. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system just a Tropical Storm as strong upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear) and cold dry air from the surge of NE Monsoon (Amihan) affects the system by Thursday afternoon (2PM Dec 03: 20.4N 136.0E). NIDA will rapidly dissipate along the NE portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving WSW slowly on Friday until Saturday (2PM Dec 04: 20.2N 135.3E...2PM Dec 05: 19.8N 134.6E). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center or EyeWall of Nida or along the Northern EyeWall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains and squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION AND NORTHERN SAMAR. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2609.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

DISCUSSION:

744

wdpn31 pgtw 300300
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 26w (Nida) warning nr 33//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
A. Typhoon (TY) 26w (Nida), located approximately 330 nm south-
southwest of iwo to, has remained quasi-stationary (qs) over the
past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts
weakening convection over all quadrants with a ragged 50nm eye. TY
26w has, in fact, remained qs over the past 36 hours and is likely
weakening due to a combination of dry air entrainment (dae) and cold
water upwelling. The total precipitable water (tpw) products
indicate dry air advection just west of the system with a wedge of
dry air (25-40mm) wrapping into the northeast quadrant. A 292032z
SSMI/S image depicts eyewall erosion to the south as dry air is
being pulled into the core, and a round 50nm diameter eye. Animated
water vapor imagery continues to show good radial outflow with
enhanced poleward outflow into the midlatitude westerlies. There is
fair confidence in the current position and motion due to the
erratic slow track and large eye, however, 37 ghz microwave imagery
supports both. The current intensity of 100 knots is based on the
higher Dvorak estimates ranging from 77 to 102 knots. The 29/12z 500
mb analysis depicts a weak mid-level steering environment with TY
26w positioned between the subtropical ridge (str) to the east and
west with strong midlatitude (zonal) westerlies north of 25n. The
upper-level flow remains high zonal across Asia with no significant
mid-level short-wave troughs evident in the upstream flow (in
imagery as well). The 30/00z surface analysis depicts strong low-
level ridging entrenched north and west of TY 26w.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. No changes to forecast philosophy.
B. Numerical guidance remains in poor agreement with two
distinct clusters; NOGAPS, GFDN, and WBAR still favor a recurvature
scenario and track the system north-northeastward to northeastward
rapidly, while JGSM, tc-laps, ukmo, ECMWF, and GFS favor a slower
westward track with dissipation. The official forecast favors the
slow westward movement with dissipation after tau 72. As the system
weakens, steering is expected to shift to the low-levels and TY 26w
is likely to track westward to southwestward under the northeasterly
flow. The dissipation scenario is based on increasing vertical wind
shear due to a combination of low-level northeasterly flow,
associated with the ridge building north of the system, and zonal
upper-level westerly flow as well as dae and cool water upwelling.
C. In the extended Taus, TY 26w will continue to weaken and
should turn southwestward and accelerate within the low-level flow.
There is still uncertainty with the timing of the dissipation and
the turn southwestward. Additionally, several models indicate that
the remnants will track cyclonically and get absorbed into a
developing storm near or northwest of Guam.//

NIDA (26W) downgraded to a Typhoon...still at Category 4...still barely moving.

2009-11-29T02:58:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Sun 29 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #029 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

NIDA (26W) downgraded to a Typhoon...still at Category 4...still barely moving.

*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun Nov 29 2009
Location of Eye: 19.4º N Lat 139.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 635 km (343 nm) SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 450 km (240 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,790 km (965 nm) ENE of Extreme N.Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 230 kph (125 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 280 kph (150 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft (11.2 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sun Nov 29

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to drift very slowly northward and will start decaying within the next 2 days. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to a Tropical Storm as strong upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear) affects the system on Wednesday morning (8AM Dec 02: 22.3N 140.3E)...about 295 km SSW of Iwo To. NIDA will continue to rapidly decay - turning more to the West slowly and dissipate to the SW of Iwo To beginning Thursday until Friday (8AM Dec 03: 22.8N 140.2E...8AM Dec 4: 22.5N 139.5E). There are still some models that forecast the soon-to-be-dissipating system tracking West to WSW into the Philippine Sea due to the strong surge of NE Monsoon (Amihan) approaching from China. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center or EyeWall of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny, clear to cloudy skies with possible passing rains, squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN LUZON. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected on these areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Extreme Catastrophic Super Typhoon NIDA (26W)

2009-11-28T03:33:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 270 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 kph

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Sat 28 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #026 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Extreme Catastrophic Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) still nearly stationary...weakened slightly to 270 km/hr (Category 5).

*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat Nov 28 2009
Location of Eye: 19.1º N Lat 139.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 665 km (360 nm) SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 450 km (240 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,790 km (965 nm) ENE of Extreme N.Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 270 kph (145 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 325 kph (175 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft (10.3 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Nov 28

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to drift slowly northeastward and will start weakening within the next 2 days. It will pass due south of Iwo To Monday afternoon (2PM Nov 30: 22.0N 141.6E). The 3 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to a Tropical Storm upon entering the mid-latitude westerly windflow (westerlies) & accelerate slightly ENE-ward on Tuesday afternoon (2PM Dec 01: 23.5N 143.5E)...about 265 km SE of Iwo To. NIDA will continue to move ENE across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean and become Extratropical by Wednesday afternoon (2PM Dec 02: 25.7N 148.9E). Based on this forecast, this system will not enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). However, constant watch on this system will continue as half of the forecast guidance models still shows a track towards the Philippine Sea. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest UKMO, JGSM, GFS, and ECMWF Extended Forecasts issued at 8AM today (Nov 28), still predicts NIDA to turn towards the left into the Philippine Sea - on a West or WSW track due to an approaching surge of NE Monsoon (aka. locally as "Amihan") from the strong High Pressure Area off SE China. This scenario is likely if the trend continues. Stay tuned for more info. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA remains over open seas as it remains as a large and dangerous super typhoon. This howler is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center or EyeWall of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny, clear to cloudy skies with possible passing rains, squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, QUEZON, MASBATE, & NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected on these areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for STY NIDA (27W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2609.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Powerful Super Typhoon NIDA (26W)

2009-11-26T22:04:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 kph

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Fri 27 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #021 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Powerful Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) moving slowly northward...weakened into a Category 4.

*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri Nov 27 2009
Location of Eye: 17.4º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 745 km (402 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 445 km (240 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,775 km (958 nm) East of Northern Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 42 ft (12.8 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Fri Nov 27

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue on its slow track and weaken further down to Category 3 as it begins recurvature for the the next 2 days. The 3 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon and will begin to enter the mid-latitude westerly windflow (westerlies) & accelerate towards the NE or ENE by Monday morning (8AM Nov 30: 23.6N 143.8E)...about 2,270 km East of Taiwan or 285 km ESE of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). NIDA will continue to move faster ENE-ward across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean and become Extratropical by Tuesday (8AM Dec 01: 29.5N 152.4E). Based on this forecast, this system will no longer enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA's southeastern outer rainbands still spreading across Marianas including Guam & Saipan, bringing passing rains with squalls across the area. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Marianas including Guam & Saipan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy skies & light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 30 kph) with occasional rains, squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, QUEZON, MASBATE, & NORTHERN VISAYAS.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for STY NIDA (27W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2609.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form from JTWC and other source agencies for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Pressure Estimates & Philipppine Storm Warning Signals by: NRL & PAGASA. Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if available) taken from T2K`s new DAVIS VANTAGE PRO2 Digital Weather Station.

THE NEXT T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY.

Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon NIDA (26W)

2009-11-26T03:28:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 270 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 215 kph

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 26 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #018 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) continues to wane in intensity while slowing down over the Western Pacific Ocean...remains at Category 5, carrying winds of 270 km/hr with higher gusts.

*Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu Nov 26 2009
Location of Eye: 15.5º N Lat 139.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 575 km (310 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 525 km (283 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,895 km (1,025 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 270 kph (145 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (175 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 44 ft (13.3 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Thu Nov 26

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue losing strength and slow down further as it turns northward within the next 2 days. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system weakening to a Category 2 and will begin to recurve sharply towards the NE by Sunday afternoon (2PM Nov 29: 22.2N 140.4E)...about 1,950 km East of Taiwan or 305 km SSW of Iwo To. NIDA will accelerate ENE-ward on Monday (2PM Nov 30: 25.5N 144.7E)...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) and lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs) affects its circulation and start transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone Tuesday afternoon (2PM Dec 01: 29.8N 153.1E). Based on this forecast, this system is not forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): Less than half of its cluster of forecast models are showing NIDA to turn towards the left...tracking it towards the Philippines on a West to WSW motion due to an approaching High Pressure Ridge off China. This scenario remains poor at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA's southeastern outer rainbands still spreading across Marianas including Guam & Saipan, bringing passing rains with squalls across the area. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Marianas including Guam & Saipan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

NIDA (26W) reaches Super Typhoon strength

2009-11-25T03:34:00.000-08:00

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 25 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #014 & RadarFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) NIDA (26W) reaches Super Typhoon strength while continuing its journey across the Western Pacific Ocean, WSW of Guam...now a Category 5 howler w/ winds of 250 km/hr. Outer rainbands spreading across Guam and the Southern Marianas.

*Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed Nov 25 2009
Location of Eye: 12.3º N Lat 142.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km (183 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 565 km (305 nm) NE of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 805 km (435 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,835 km (990 nm) East of Visayas, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (135 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Wed Nov 25

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is currently displaying a well-defined 30-km. diameter eye, surrounded with an intense eyewall...and is expected to continue moving NW to NNW for the next 5 days, reaching its peak winds of 270 km/hr by tomorrow afternoon (2PM Nov 26: 14.8N 140.6E). The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system maintaining its Category 5 strength until early Friday morning (2AM Nov 27: 16.0N 139.9E)...while about 1,890 km East of Northern Luzon. NIDA will start to slow down and begin turning northward while losing strength on late Friday until Monday, as increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) affects its circulation (2PM Nov 28: 18.6N 138.3E...2PM Nov 29: 19.6N 137.9E...2PM Nov 30: 21.1N 137.7E). Based on this forecast, this system is not a threat to the Philippine Islands. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): Half of its cluster of forecast models are showing NIDA to turn towards the left...tracking it towards the Philippines on a West to WSW motion due to an approaching High Pressure Ridge off China. This scenario remains poor at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA's northeastern outer rainbands now spreading across Southern Marianas including Guam, bringing moderate to sometimes heavy squalls across the area. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Marianas including Guam. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA [27W]

2009-11-24T05:59:00.001-08:00

URDUJA (27W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA [27W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 24 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis & JTWC Warning #04/SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Depression URDUJA (27W) losing organization and weakening...drifting southwest closer to Siargao Island. Rainbands still affecting Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern and Central Visayas should closely monitor the progress of URDUJA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue November 24 2009
Location of Center: 9.8º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) East of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) East of Surigao City
Distance 3: 225 km (122 nm) SE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 240 km (130 nm) SE of Ormoc City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: SW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Surigao Provinces
Size (in Diameter): 250 km (135 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #04 (for Public): 6 PM PST Tue Nov 24

+ Forecast Outlook: URDUJA is expected to slow down and track SW to Southward into Surigao del Norte. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system moving overland across Surigao del Norte by tomorrow afternoon (2PM Nov 25: 9.5N 125.8E) and will dissipate into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA). Complete dissipation of this system is forecast by early Thursday morning while over the mountains of Agusan Del Norte. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: URDUJA's rainbands remain sheared to the west and continues to dump scattered to widespread rains across Northern Mindanao and the whole of the Visayas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 up to 75 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (very heavy to extreme rain)off its inner bands especially over the islands of Leyte, Bohol, Cebu and Negros. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: BOHOL, LEYTE PROVINCES, CAMOTES ISLAND, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, WESTERN SAMAR, SURIGAO PROVINCES, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, DINAGAT ISLAND, SIARGAO ISLAND, & CAMIGUIN ISLAND.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 55 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living along river banks, low-lying and mountainous areas which are under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

Typhoon NIDA (26W)

2009-11-24T05:57:00.000-08:00

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 241321
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
1100 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009

...TYPHOON NIDA IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE MOVE...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.0 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
130 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
315 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS.
470 MILES EAST OF YAP.

TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. NIDA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

STANKO

Tropical Depression URDUJA (93W)

2009-11-23T07:43:00.000-08:00

6PM Nov 23: 10.0N 126.4E 55 kph NW @ 07 kph Leyte-Samar

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" has accelerated and is heading towards Visayas.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 70 kms East Northeast of Surigao City

Coordinates: 10.2°N, 126.0°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center

Movement: West Northwest at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Tuesday morning:
is expected to make landfall over Leyte
Tuesday evening:
40 kms East Southeast of Roxas City
Wednesday evening:
120 kms West Northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
Thursday evening:
450 kms Northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Masbate
Eastern Samar
Western Samar
Biliran
Leyte Provinces
Cebu
Camotes Island
Bohol
Negros Provinces
Aklan
Capiz
Antique
Iloilo
Guimaras
Camiguin
Agusan del Norte
Surigao del Norte
Surigao del Sur
Dinagat
Siargao Island

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

Tropical Storm 26W (UNNAMED)

2009-11-23T07:38:00.000-08:00

6PM Nov 23: 8.5N 147.4E 65 kph WNW @ 13 kph Southern Marianas

at 231200z, tropical storm 26w (Nida) was located near
8.8n 147.0e, approximately 307 nm south-southeast of Guam, and had
tracked west-northwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 knots gusting
to 45 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 231500) for further details.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 PM CHST MON NOV 23 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL STORM...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 26W WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
140 MILES NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
140 MILES WEST OF ULUL
85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL
210 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
395 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
650 MILES EAST OF YAP.

TROPICAL STORM 26W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 26W IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

Tropical Disturbance 93W has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 97W (UNNAMED)

2009-11-22T21:53:00.000-08:00

93W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 23 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis & NOAA/JTWC SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) which has been meandering over the Southern Philippine Sea, near the east coast of Mindanao during the past 3 days - has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 97W (UNNAMED). This system has drifted Northwestward during the past 3 hours...may threaten the eastern coasts of Surigao Del Norte, Leyte & Samar.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern and Central Visayas should closely monitor the progress of 93W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon November 23 2009
Location of Center: 9.3º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (128 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) SE of Tacloban City
Distance 3: 290 km (157 nm) SE of Guiuan, E.Samar
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: NW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Coastal Leyte
Size (in Diameter): 250 km (135 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]

+ Forecast Outlook: 93W is expected to continue drifting NW-ward and slightly intensify. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system slowing down again while nearing the coast of Leyte & Surigao Del Norte. More forecast outlook will be issued soon as majority of the forecast guidance models remains poor in initializing the future track of this depression. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 26W's organizing bands continues to dump scattered to widespread rains across Northern Mindanao including the coastal areas of Leyte and Samar Islands. Rainfall amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy rains) can be expected. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

The area of convection previously located near 7.8n
128.9e, is now located near 8.2n 128.2e, approximately 390 nm west
of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows continued
consolidation of deep convection near a well-defined low level
circulation center (LLCC) and a 220500z amsre Aqua microwave image
shows multiple convective bands converging into the system center.
The 220035z ascat pass also reveals a symmetric LLCC with 20-knot
winds. Environmental analysis indicates the system is in an area of
minimal vertical wind shear and has divergent flow aloft. An
upstream mid-latitude trough is also starting to provide increased
poleward outflow. A Circle was used for the tropical cyclone
formation alert area to convey near-term track uncertainty due to
the system being in a dual steering environment. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 17 to 22 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. Given an increase in
convective consolidation and improving poleward outflow, the
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to good. See ref b (wtpn21 pgtw
221000) for further details.

Tropical Depression 26W continues to gain strength

2009-11-22T21:49:00.001-08:00

at 220600z, tropical depression 26w (twentysix) was
located near 7.5n 148.5e, approximately 410 nm southeast of Guam,
and had tracked north-northwestward at 09 knots over the past six
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 30 knots
gusting to 40 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 220900) for further
details.

046

wtpn31 pgtw 230300
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 26w (twentysix) warning nr 005
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
230000z --- near 8.1n 148.9e
movement past six hours - 010 degrees at 05 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 8.1n 148.9e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
231200z --- 8.7n 148.0e
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 24 hr posit: 295 deg/ 05 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
240000z --- 9.1n 147.1e
Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 295 deg/ 08 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
241200z --- 9.8n 145.6e
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 315 deg/ 07 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
250000z --- 10.8n 144.5e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 72 hr posit: 325 deg/ 08 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
260000z --- 13.3n 142.6e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 100 nm northeast quadrant
090 nm southeast quadrant
090 nm southwest quadrant
100 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 330 deg/ 08 kts
---
long range outlook:
note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 350 nm on day 5... and for intensity
near 20 kt each day.
---
96 hrs, valid at:
270000z --- 15.9n 140.9e
Max sustained winds - 075 kt, gusts 090 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 120 hr posit: 335 deg/ 08 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
280000z --- 18.8n 139.5e
Max sustained winds - 090 kt, gusts 110 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
---
remarks:
230300z position near 8.2n 148.7e.
Tropical depression 26w, located approximately 395 nm southeast of
Guam, has tracked northward at 05 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum significant wave height at 230000z is 12 feet. Next warnings
at 230900z, 231500z, 232100z and 240300z.//

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W [UNNAMED]

2009-11-22T02:48:00.000-08:00

26W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W [UNNAMED]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 22 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Depression 26W (UNNAMED) strengthening southeast of Guam...may threaten Southern Marianas and Western Micronesia.

*Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 26W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun November 22 2009
Location of Center: 7.5º N Lat 148.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 750 km (405 nm) SSE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,135 km (613 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 2,370 km (1,280 nm) East of Mindanao, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: NW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sun Nov 22

+ Forecast Outlook: 26W is expected to continue moving NW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a tropical storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system maintaining its NW path as it strengthens to a 100-kph storm on Tuesday afternoon [2pm Nov 24: 10.0N 145.8E]. 26W will become a Category 1 Typhoon on Wednesday afternoon...passing about 230 km WSW of Guam [2pm Nov 25: 11.7N 143.7E]...and turning more NNW on Thursday afternoon [2pm Nov 26: 14.0N 141.4E] while about 375 km WNW of Guam. 26W will reach Category 2 status on Friday afternoon [2pm Nov 27: 17.1N 139.7E] with winds of 165 kph...about 685 km NW of Guam. Based on this forecast, this system remains not a threat to the Philippines. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 26W is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) has drifted NW slowly while over the Southern Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 8.3N lon 128.2E...or about 335 km SE of Surigao City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a weak Tropical Cyclone within the next 12-24 hours.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Tropical Disturbance 93W raised by JMA as Tropical Depression

2009-11-22T02:46:00.000-08:00

Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) has drifted NW slowly while over the Southern Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 8.3N lon 128.2E...or about 335 km SE of Surigao City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a weak Tropical Cyclone within the next 12-24 hours.

2009-11-21T04:22:00.000-08:00

Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) the area of convection previously located near 6.5n
129.5e, is now located near 6.9n 128.8e, approximately 350 nm west
of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows improved
consolidation of the deep convection over an increasingly symmetric
low level circulation center (LLCC), as seen in the 202138z Quikscat
pass. Additionally, the 210038z trmm microwave image reveals
multiple low level bands starting to converge into the LLCC.
However, it appears the system still lacks good outflow and the deep
convection is being sheared slightly to the west. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to fair.
(2) an area of convection has persisted near 5.9n 146.9e,
approximately 475 nm south-southeast of Guam. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery shows increasing convective consolidation over a
broad low level circulation center (LLCC). A 201958z Quikscat pass
depicts an elongated LLCC and a 202315z ascat pass indicates 20-knot
winds converging into the LLCC from the west-southwest.
Additionally, the sea level pressure at Chuuk has been around 1005
mb over the last 24 hours. The system is under the subtropical ridge
axis in an area of minimal vertical wind shear and has sufficient
radial outflow. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15
to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours is fair.

Please refer the website: typhoon2000.com for further information.

93W and 94W upgraded to fair and subjected to TCFA within the next 12-24 hours

2009-11-21T01:21:00.000-08:00

Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA)

the area of convection previously located near 6.5n
129.5e, is now located near 6.9n 128.8e, approximately 350 nm west
of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows improved
consolidation of the deep convection over an increasingly symmetric
low level circulation center (LLCC), as seen in the 202138z Quikscat
pass. Additionally, the 210038z trmm microwave image reveals
multiple low level bands starting to converge into the LLCC.
However, it appears the system still lacks good outflow and the deep
convection is being sheared slightly to the west. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to fair.

Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA)

an area of convection has persisted near 5.9n 146.9e,
approximately 475 nm south-southeast of Guam. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery shows increasing convective consolidation over a
broad low level circulation center (LLCC). A 201958z Quikscat pass
depicts an elongated LLCC and a 202315z ascat pass indicates 20-knot
winds converging into the LLCC from the west-southwest.
Additionally, the sea level pressure at Chuuk has been around 1005
mb over the last 24 hours. The system is under the subtropical ridge
axis in an area of minimal vertical wind shear and has sufficient
radial outflow. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15
to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours is fair.

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern & Eastern Luzon, Bicol & Visayas. LPA (93W) bringing rains across Mindanao.

2009-11-20T04:22:00.000-08:00

SEVERE ALERT STAGE

Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA)

* located over the Southern Philippine Sea or near 6.6N 129.1E...about 390 km ESE of Davao City

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 20KT (37KPH) MSLP: 1007.5MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: 0C
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: 0C
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

Discussion/Prognosis:

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZNOV2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 129.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 200117Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BANDING NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT WITH A WEAK LLCC
SIGNATURE. A 200116Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POOR
ASSESSMENT AND SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE WITH KOROR (NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC) MAINTAINING 10-KNOT EASTERLY FLOW AND SLP NEAR 1007 MB. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 20-30 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A
WEAK, ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO MINDANAO AND THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

Possible TC Formation possible over the Northwestern Pacific next week.

2009-11-19T03:52:00.000-08:00

Based on the latest ECMWF model track,Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible over the Southern Philippine Sea, east of Mindanao (near Palau) up to the Caroline Islands (south of Guam) between November 20 to 26, 2009.

2009-11-18T06:58:00.000-08:00

FORECAST:

Based on the latest model issued by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows two possible system develop. The system that might develop off the coast of northeastern Mindanao is forecast to moved N-NNW heading Eastern Samar.It is projected to pass Northern Samar and transverse Northern Visayas sea. It will make its exit in Southern Mindoro if the forecast will remain the same.

NOTE:

This forecast will likely to happen though every 12 hrs are subject to change.

I.T.C.Z. (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting Mindanao & Palawan. Tail-End of a Cold Front affecting Extreme Northern Luzon.

2009-11-18T06:56:00.000-08:00

SYNOPSIS:

At 2:00 p.m. today, a Shallow Low Pressure Area (SLPA) was estimated at 590 kms East of Mindanao (07.9°N, 132.3°E). Northeast monsoon affecting Northern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Eastern Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming widespread rains over Eastern Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. Northern Luzon will have cloudy skies with scattered light rains while the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and over the Eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

2009-11-17T04:00:00.000-08:00

Based on the latest ECMWF model, the said tropical disturbance starts to develop over the Northeastern part of Mindanao on Nov. 23, 2009. It is forecast to move northwestward direction and resume morely to northward direction.

Note:

Prior to change unless the straightnew forecast will remain the same.

I.T.C.Z. (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting Visayas, Mindanao & Palawan.

2009-11-17T03:48:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) affecting Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao. Tail-end of a cold front affecting Extreme Northern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming widespread rains over Eastern Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. Extreme Northern Luzon will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while the rest of Luzon will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and over the Eastern sections of the country and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible between Nov. 19- 25, 2009 near the Eastern Mindanao or Palau

2009-11-16T03:37:00.000-08:00

FORECAST:

Based on the latest forecast model,the tropical region in the Northwestern Pacific specifically the Philippines shows a tropical cyclone formation in the next few days.The said tropical disturbance is expected to develop a tropical cyclone off near the coast of Northern Mindanao.It is expected to hit Eastern Visayas whether on Nov.24 or 25. More weather updates will come about the new tropical cyclone formation in the next few days.

NOTE:

This forecast is subject to changes and only applicable if three straight forecasts remains the same.

I.T.C.Z. (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting Eastern Visayas and Mindanao.

2009-11-16T03:32:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) affecting Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao. Diffused tail-end of a cold front affecting Extreme Northern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming widespread rains over Eastern Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. Extreme Northern Luzon will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rains while the rest of Luzon will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the east and northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and over the eastern sections of the country and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Tropical Disturbance 90w

2009-11-15T03:19:00.000-08:00

WARNING STAGE
CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 37KT (69KPH) MSLP: 1003.7MB
ADT ANALYSIS: 0KT (0kph) MSLP: 0mb
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: 0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH

I.T.C.Z. (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting Mindanao...Tail-end of a Cold Front affecting Extreme Northern Luzon.

2009-11-15T03:16:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) affecting Mindanao and Palawan. Diffused tail-end of a cold front affecting Northeastern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Mindanao and Palawan will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the east and northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

2009-11-14T04:09:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the Northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Easterly Tradewinds affecting the eastern coast of Visayas & Mindanao...bringing cloudy skies w/ passing rains & thunderstorms, mostly at noontime.

2009-11-13T23:54:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the east and northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Easterly Tradewinds affecting the eastern coast of Visayas & Mindanao...bringing cloudy skies w/ passing rains & thunderstorms, mostly at noontime or

2009-11-13T03:45:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Wind convergence affecting Visayas and Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and the coastal waters along this area will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the East and Northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Weather Updates

2009-11-12T04:23:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Wind convergence affecting Visayas.

FORECAST:

Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Northern and the Eastern section of Central Luzon with moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the East and Northeast and its coastal waters will be slight to moderate except during thunderstorms.

Weather Updates

2009-11-11T21:56:00.001-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Northern and Eastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the east and northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Weather Updates

2009-11-11T05:46:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the east and northeast will prevail over Northern and Eastern Luzon and at the Eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the east and northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

There are no systems present across the tropical region of Western Pacific region

2009-11-10T04:36:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the east and northeast will prevail over Northern and Eastern Luzon and from the northeast over the Eastern secion of Visayas and Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the east and northeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W [UNNAMED]

2009-11-09T05:55:00.000-08:00

25W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
5:00 PM PST (09:00 GMT)
Mon 09 November 2009
Sources: JMA TC 09Z Warning
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression 25W (UNNAMED) drifting eastward.

*This system is not a threat to the Philippines, as it is located more than a thousand miles away..

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 25W expected to move NE for the next 24 hours.

+ Effects: 25W's circulation not affecting any land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 up to 200 mm (light to very heavy rain) can be expected along the rain bands of 25W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PST Mon Nov 09 2009
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 160.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 650 km (350 nm) WNW of Wake Island
Distance 2: 790 km (427 nm) ESE of Marcus Island
Distance 3: 1,870 km (1,070 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 3,920 km (2,117 nm) ENE of The Philippines
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Click to view: 25W's Latest Wind Analysis
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm.
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Current Movement: East @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: None
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Mon Nov 09
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Mon Nov 09
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

TROPICAL STORM 25W [UNNAMED]

2009-11-08T19:06:00.001-08:00

25W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 25W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
5:00 AM PST (21:00 GMT)
Mon 09 November 2009
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #008 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 25W (UNNAMED) slows down and weakens as it drifts South.

*This system is not a threat to the Philippines, as it is located more than a thousand miles away..

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 25W expected to resume moving NE for the next 36 hours and will become Extratropical tomorrow morning.

+ Effects: 25W's circulation not affecting any land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 up to 80 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the rain bands...with isolated amounts of 180 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of 25W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PST Mon Nov 09 2009
Location of Center: 21.0º N Lat 159.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 665 km (360 nm) SE of Marcus Island
Distance 2: 785 km (425 nm) WNW of Wake Island
Distance 3: 1,755 km (948 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 3,785 km (2,045 nm) ENE of The Philippines
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Click to view: 25W's Latest Wind Analysis
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm.
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Current Movement: South @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: None
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Nov 09
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Nov 09
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

TROPICAL STORM 25W [UNNAMED]

2009-11-08T04:20:00.000-08:00

25W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 25W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
5:00 PM PST (09:00 GMT)
Sun 08 November 2009
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #006 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 25W (UNNAMED) continues to intensify as it heads ENE.

*This system is not a threat to the Philippines, as it is located more than a thousand miles away..

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 25W expected to turn NE for the next 48 hours and still intensify slightly. It will become Extratropical on Tuesday Nov 10.

+ Effects: 25W's circulation remains organized but is not affecting any land areas...remains over open seas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the rain bands...with isolated amounts of 180 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of 25W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PST Sun Nov 08 2009
Location of Center: 21.7º N Lat 159.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 615 km (332 nm) ESE of Marcus Island
Distance 2: 815 km (440 nm) WNW of Wake Island
Distance 3: 1,780 km (960 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 3,785 km (2,043 nm) ENE of The Philippines
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Click to view: 25W's Latest Wind Analysis
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm.
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Current Movement: ENE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: None
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sun Nov 08
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Nov 08
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

TROPICAL STORM 25W [UNNAMED]

2009-11-07T18:52:00.000-08:00

25W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 25W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
5:00 AM PST (21:00 GMT)
Sun 08 November 2009
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #004-SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

25W (UNNAMED) reaches Tropical Storm status...drifting Eastward across the middle of the Western Pacific Ocean.

*This system is not a threat to the Philippines, as it is located more than a thousand miles away..

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 25W expected to continue moving Eastward for the next 12 hours before it turns ENE-ward to NE. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system continuing moving NE-ward and intensifying to 85 kph before dissipating over water on Wednesday Nov 11.

+ Effects: 25W's circulation has strengthened w/ the development of spiral bands on all quadrants of this system. This system is not affecting any major land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the rain bands of 25W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PST Sun Nov 08 2009
Location of Center: 20.6º N Lat 156.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 510 km (275 nm) SE of Marcus Island
Distance 2: 1,035 km (560 nm) WNW of Wake Island
Distance 3: 1,505 km (813 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 3,525 km (1,903 nm) ENE of The Philippines
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Click to view: 25W's Latest Wind Analysis
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm.
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Current Movement: East @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: None
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sun Nov 08
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Nov 08
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W [UNNAMED]

2009-11-07T03:27:00.000-08:00

25W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
5:00 PM PST (09:00 GMT)
Tue 03 November 2009
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression 25W (UNNAMED), newly-formed in the middle of the Western Pacific Ocean...not a threat to any major land masses...currently moving northwestward.

*This system is not a threat to the Philippines, as it is located more than a thousand miles away..

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 25W expected to move Northward within the next 12 hours before it recurves NE-ward and dissipate.

+ Effects: 25W is a weak system and is not affecting any land areas nearby. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 up to 30 mm (light rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 80 mm (moderate rain) near the center of 25W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PST Sat November 07 2009
Location of Center: 21.1º N Lat 155.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km (175 nm) SSE of Marcus Island
Distance 2: 1,175 km (635 nm) WNW of Wake Island
Distance 3: 1,420 km (767 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 3,395 km (1,835 nm) ENE of The Philippines
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Click to view: 25W's Latest Wind Analysis
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 80 mm.
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Current Movement: NW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: None
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Nov 07
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Nov 03
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

Easterly Tradewinds affecting the eastern coast of the Philippines...bringing good and pleasant weather w/ passing rains & thunderstorms, mostly at no

2009-11-07T01:23:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Wind convergence affecting Mindanao. Moderate to strong northeasterly surface windflow prevailing over Luzon and Visayas.

FORECAST:

Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Light to moderate winds blowing from the east and northeast will prevail over the rest of Mindanao with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Easterly Windflow (aka. Easterly Wave) dissipates...Clear and sunny weather (w/ some chance of isolated rains & thunderstorms) across most of the Phil

2009-11-06T03:48:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Light to moderate winds blowing from the East and Northeast will prevail over the rest of Mindanao with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Easterly Windflow (aka. Easterly Wave) dissipates...Clear and sunny weather (w/ some chance of isolated rains & thunderstorms) across most of the Phil

2009-11-05T21:12:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast Monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas. Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

The whole country will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Light to moderate winds blowing from the northeast and east will prevail over Mindanao with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Easterly Windflow (aka. Easterly Wave) bringing scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms across Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Southern Luzon and V

2009-11-05T04:28:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast Monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas. Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms becoming widespread rains over the Eastern section which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. Meanwhile, Northern Luzon and Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Light to moderate winds blowing from the Northeast and Southeast will prevail over Mindanao with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Weakening Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) across Luzon...Easterly Windflow (aka. Easterly Wave) across Visayas and Mindanao. These weather systems will bri

2009-11-04T05:15:00.000-08:00

SYPNOSIS:

Northeast monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas. Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

FORECAST:

The whole country will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming widespread rains over the Eastern sections which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northeast will prevail over Luzon and Visayas and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Light to moderate coming from the East and Northeast with prevail over Mindanao with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO [24W]

2009-11-03T04:33:00.000-08:00

TINO (24W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 30 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 30 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO [24W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007 [FINAL]
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Tue 03 November 2009
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression TINO (24W) dissipates off Bondoc Peninsula...its remnants moving towards Mindoro. Click here to view image of Tino's weakening stage.

*This is the Final Advisory on this short-lived system..

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: N/A.

+ Effects: N/A.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong northeasterly winds not in excess of 70 kph with occasional widespread showers, rains, squalls (subasko) and low temperatures can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON including METRO MANILA. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue November 03 2009
Location of Center: 13.4º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 50 km (93 nm) ESE of Marinduque
Distance 2: 110 km (60 nm) WSW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 30 kph (15 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 45 kph (25 kts)
Click to view: TINO's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 50 mm.
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: N/A
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
T2K Final TrackMap #05 (for Public): 6 PM PST Tue Nov 03
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Nov 03
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO [24W]

2009-11-02T20:39:00.001-08:00

TINO (24W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO [24W]
T2K INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 03 November 2009
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression TINO (24W) dissipating off Northern Camarines Sur...now in the vicinity of Siruma-Tinambac border. Windy conditions w/ drizzle to light rains can be expected.

*All Philippine Storm Warning Signals elsewhere has already been lifted, as PAGASA dissipates TINO into a Low Pressure Area (LPA)..

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: TINO is expected to continue moving SW within the next 12 to 24 hours and is expected to weaken into a tropical disturbance (LPA) later and may dissipate along the mountains of Camarines Norte.

+ Effects: TINO's circulation has been shattered by the strong surge of cold NE Monsoon. This system will dissipate along the mountains of Camarines Norte and Southern Quezon. Only drizzle to light rains w/ strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected today across Northern Bicol Region and Southern Quezon...Sunlight conditions can also be expected as the depression's clouds are currently thin especially near its low-level circulation center (LLCC). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 25 mm (light rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 50 mm (moderate rain) near the center of TINO. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region, Quezon, Northern Visayas and Aurora. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong northeasterly winds not in excess of 70 kph with occasional widespread showers, rains, squalls (subasko) and low temperatures can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON including METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION & NORTHERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue November 03 2009
Location of Center: 13.9º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 10 km (5 nm) North of Tinambac, Cam Sur
Distance 2: 11 km (6 nm) SSE of Siruma, Cam Sur
Distance 3: 25 km (13 nm) NE of Calabanga, Cam Sur
Distance 4: 35 km (19 nm) NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 50 km (27 nm) ESE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 6: 55 km (30 nm) West of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 7: 195 km (105 nm) East of Lucena City
Distance 8: 250 km (135 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Click to view: TINO's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 50 mm.
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: SW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Camarines Provinces
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
T2K TrackMap #04 (for Public): 12 PM PST Tue Nov 03
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Nov 03
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO [97W]

2009-11-02T03:26:00.000-08:00

97W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO [97W]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 02 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Satfix/PAGASA (Signals)
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Depression 97W is now named by PAGASA as TINO...may turn southwestward (SW) towards the coast of Northern Quezon due to the approaching cold surge of the NE Monsoon. Widespread "on and off" rains expected across Luzon including Metro Manila and Bicol Region.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of TINO (97W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: TINO is expected to continue moving SW-ward within the next 12 to 24 hours and dissipate. The 24-hr T2K Short-Range forecast shows the system dissipating along the coast of Northern Quezon as the surge of cold Northeast Monsoon will bring dry air into its circulation. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: TINO's circulation has become more compact and smaller as cold dry air from the surge of NE Monsoon from China continues to affect the system. Within the next 2 days, its remnants will bring scattered to widespread rains across Luzon particularly Northern Quezon, Bicol Region and Central Luzon including Metro Manila. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong northeasterly winds not in excess of 70 kph with occasional widespread showers, rains, squalls (subasko) and low temperatures can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON including METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION & NORTHERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon November 02 2009
Location of Center: 17.1º N Lat 124.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 275 km (148 nm) East of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 290 km (157 nm) ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 330 km (178 nm) ENE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 410 km (220 nm) NNE of Naga City
Distance 6: 450 km (245 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Click to view: 97W's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: SW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
T2K TrackMap #03 (for Public): 6 PM PST Mon Nov 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 6 AM Mon Nov 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: ISABELA, CAGAYAN, BATANES, BABUYAN & CALAYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 55 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

Tropical Depression 97w now develops heading towards extreme Northern Luzon

2009-11-01T18:17:00.000-08:00

97W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W [UNNAMED]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 02 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Satfix & TCFA/JMA Warning
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon has developed into Tropical Depression 97W (UNNAMED)...currently moving towards the WNW...threatening Northern Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 97W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 97W is expected to track WNW to Westward within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2-day T2K Short-Range forecast shows the system crossing Extreme Northern Luzon via Cagayan tomorrow and will traverse Apayao and exit Luzon into the South China Sea thru Ilocos Provinces on Wednesday Nov 04. This system may weaken into a disturbance (LPA) as it crosses Extreme Northern Luzon due to a cold surge of Northeast Monsoon which will bring dry air into its circulation. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: 97W's developing circulation continues to improve. This system is not yet affecting any parts of the Philippines, however if its forecast track continues, deteriorating weather conditions can be expected across Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight or tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon November 02 2009
Location of Center: 18.0º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 490 km (265 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 500 km (270 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 530 km (285 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 590 km (318 nm) NE of Naga City
Distance 5: 605 km (325 nm) East of Laoag City
Distance 6: 670 km (360 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Click to view: 97W's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
T2K TrackMap #01 (for Public): 6 AM PST Mon Nov 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 6 AM Mon Nov 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

2009-11-01T06:55:00.000-08:00

Tropical Disturbance 97W [LPA] continues to organize across Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 15.8N lon 129.6E...or about 805 km East of Casiguran, Aurora...920 km ENE of Metro Manila...730 km ENE of Naga City. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 35 kph near the center...moving West @ 20 kph towards Eastern Luzon. Rains can be expected from this system tomorrow across Eastern Luzon.

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]

2009-11-01T06:54:00.000-08:00

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 01 November 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #026
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Storm MIRINAE (SANTI) moving west across the South China Sea...may weaken soon.

*Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to track WSW-ward while weakening further...it shall be approaching the coast of Vietnam w/in 24 hours. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Vietnam tomorrow afternoon...dissipating later in the evening. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's radial circulation continues to lose strength as dry air entrainment from a cold NE surge off China enters the system. This storm is no longer affecting any land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 100 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun November 01 2009
Location of Center: 13.8º N Lat 113.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) NNW of Pagasa Island
Distance 2: 515 km (278 nm) ENE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 800 km (432 nm) WSW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sun Nov 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Nov 01
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Nov 01
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Disturbance 97W ( LPA ) slowly organizing off the coast of Eastern Luzon

2009-10-31T20:20:00.000-07:00

Tropical Disturbance 97W [LPA] a new one over the Philippine Sea east of Luzon is slowly organizing...currently located near lat 15.5N lon 131.8E...or about 845 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes...1,155 km East of Metro Manila ...950 km ENE of Naga City. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center...moving westward slowly.

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]

2009-10-29T06:10:00.000-07:00

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) continues to threaten a wide-swath of areas in Luzon with landfall projection either Aurora or Northern Quezon...now tracking Westward during the past 3 hours.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook continues to change more to south matching the ECMWF (European) guidance model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass over Polillo Island around 2 AM Saturday and make landfall over Northern Quezon just north of Infanta between 5-6 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Bulacan, Pampanga around 10 AM - passing about 25 km. North of Quezon City and will be over Subic Bay/Olongapo City area at around 2 PM Saturday. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01 and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has slightly weakened but its wind speed remained intact. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.0º N Lat 129.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 640 km (345 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 680 km (368 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 715 km (387 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 760 km (410 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 810 km (437 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 865 km (467 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #02 (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Oct 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO ISLAND.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: CAMARINES PROVINCES, CATANDUANES, REST OF QUEZON, RIZAL, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, AND ISABELA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]

2009-10-29T01:05:00.000-07:00

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) has gained strength as it moves on a new track and forecast...now threatens Eastern and Central Luzon including Northern Bicol.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed more to south closer to the ECMWF model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 3 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday night, Oct 30, passing more or less 190 km. North of Bicol Region around 9 PM. The core shall make landfall over Northern Quezon, in between the towns of Baler, Aurora and Infanta, Quezon around 7-8 AM Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Nueva Ecija and Tarlac - passing over Cabanatuan City (about 80 km. north of Metro Manila) around 9 AM. MIRINAE will exit Luzon via Iba, Zambales Saturday afternoon and shall be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01. This system shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation continues to exhibit good organization as it moves over a slightly warm Philippine Sea. Its EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 15.8º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 760 km (410 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 795 km (430 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 830 km (448 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 865 km (467 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 880 km (475 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 940 km (507 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 995 km (537 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,060 km (572 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, ISABELA, IFUGAO, AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, RIZAL, & QUEZON.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]

2009-10-28T04:39:00.000-07:00

MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Typhoon MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) moving closer quickly to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...wind speeds now at 140 kph...threatens Eastern Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight approx 8 PM. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow evening...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall just north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Northern Aurora, Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE continues to pick up strength along the warm waters of the Western Pacific...its circulation continues to improve, with the appearance of a small-ragged EYE. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of its outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed October 28 2009
Location of Eye: 16.3º N Lat 137.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1,415 km (765 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
Distance 3: 1,620 km (875 nm) East of Aurora
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: S.Isabela-N.Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Wed Oct 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Oct 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Oct 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]

2009-10-27T18:28:00.000-07:00

MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) rapidly intensified into a Typhoon, gaining speed as it tracks Westerly towards the Philippine Sea...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains slightly the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow afternoon until end of the forecast...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's strong circulation has become more compact...continues to improve. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of the outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 90 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 120 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed October 28 2009
Location of Eye: 16.2º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 680 km (367 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 450 km (243 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,615 km (872 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 120 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Isabela-Northern Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Wed Oct 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [23W/0921]

2009-10-27T05:31:00.000-07:00

MIRINAE (23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) has been christened as MIRINAE...moving quickly Northwestward farther away from the Marianas...may threaten Luzon, Philippines in 2 to 3 days.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (23W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly...now expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity early Thursday morning, as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more Westward late Thursday Oct 29 until Friday Oct 30th...and will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (195 kph) about more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core will make landfall in between the towns of Baler & Casiguran in Aurora on late Saturday afternoon - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Vizcaya, Tarlac, Pangasinan and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8AM today, showed the system passing close just north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation has been improving over the past 12 hours. Its rainbands has left Marianas...improving weather conditions expected. As of now, this system has been moving across warm open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 75 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 142.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 845 km (457 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,000 km (1,080 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-75 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Storm Mirinae hits Saipan, now fastly heading towars Luzon

2009-10-27T00:43:00.000-07:00

23W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) continues to organize as it moves away from Northern Marianas.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a Westerly track on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon (215 kph) more or less 200 km. North of Camarines Sur...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday evening - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands has started to move out of the Marianas...improving weather conditions expected beginning tonight...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can still be expected across these islands troughout the day. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 30 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 144.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km (80 nm) NNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 990 km (535 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,135 km (1,152 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 70 kph (38 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 90 kph (43 kts)
12 to 18-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-80 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]

2009-10-26T19:19:00.001-07:00

23W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

23W (UNNAMED) strengthened into a Tropical Storm...now passing close to Guam, as depicted on Andersen Air Base' Doppler Radar.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 2 days...under the influence of the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon with winds of 215 kph...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday afternoon, Oct 31 and crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night...and exiting the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands lashing the Marianas including Guam...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can be expected across these islands. 06 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 145.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) ENE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,160 km (628 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,310 km (1,248 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
06 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-80 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]

2009-10-26T03:10:00.001-07:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 [INITIAL]
2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT)
Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) over Eastern Micronesia has strengthened into Tropical Depression 23W (UNNAMED)...accelerating WNW towards the Marianas...may pose a threat to the Philippines in the coming days.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to quickly move more to the west within the next 2 days as the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it strengthens...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It shall attain Tropical Storm status later tonight. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29, as a Category 1 Typhoon with winds of 140 kph...will be approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 185 kph. *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF):The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast shows the system crossing Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila on Friday or Saturday (Oct 30-31). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate. Its rainbands expected to reach Marianas including Guam later tonight...Gale-force winds w/ rains can be expected.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Mon October 26 2009
Location of Center: 13.2º N Lat 149.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 550 km (297 nm) East of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,610 km (870 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,790 km (1,507 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Oct 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Oct 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA] is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)

2009-10-25T20:21:00.000-07:00

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA] is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) based on JTWC's analysis...will developed into a Tropical Depression within the next 06 to 24 housr. Currently located near 1at 12.5N lon 152.3E...or about 820 km ESE of Guam...1,875 km East of P.A.R...2,910 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 40 kph near the center. The latest (8PM Oct 25) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - continues to show this system heading westward quickly (aka. "Straight-Runner" track) into the Philippine Sea this week. Becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday, October 29 and striking Bicol Region-Southern Tagalog-NCR Area on Halloween Weekend, Friday-Saturday (Oct 30 to 31). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) fast becoming an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves quickly northeastward.

2009-10-25T20:19:00.000-07:00

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 035 [FINAL]
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #048
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) fast becoming an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves quickly northeastward.

*This is the Final Advisory on this system.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to complete its Extratropical transition late today.

+ Effects: N/A

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon October 26 2009
Location of Center: 27.0º N Lat 132.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 450 km (243 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,295 km (702 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-150 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Honshu's Coast
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Oct 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Oct 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Oct 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to organize as it moves West slowly

2009-10-25T05:11:00.000-07:00

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to organize as it moves West slowly. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 48 to 72 hours...currently located near 1at 11.5N lon 153.9E...or about 1,010 km ESE of Guam...2,060 km East of P.A.R...3,075 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (8AM Oct 25) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - continues to show this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous tropical storm or minimal typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-Polillo-NCR/Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Tropical Storm Ramil exits the PAR

2009-10-25T05:09:00.000-07:00

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 034
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #046
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...now moving away from Okinawa.

*Residents and visitors along the coasts of Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to move NE-ward rapidly towards the coast of Southern Honshu. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows LUPIT becoming an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone on Tuesday afternoon, Oct 27.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to deteriorate. Its rainbands spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus and is now approaching SW Japan...rains and winds of not in excess of 95 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 75 to 100 mm (moderate rain) near the center of LUPIT especially along its northern part. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan & Taiwan.

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 25.5º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km (97 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 785 km (425 nm) East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 940 km (508 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 75-100 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Honshu's Coast
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sun Oct 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Disturbance 95w is worthlywatch for possibe TCFA in the next 24-48 hours

2009-10-24T22:43:00.000-07:00

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to move Westward in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.3N lon 154.0E...or about 1,025 km ESE of Guam...2,070 km East of P.A.R...3,085 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-NCR-Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

- Typhoon2000.com

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
345 PM CHST SUN OCT 25 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-260700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
345 PM CHST SUN OCT 25 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 11N154E IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND MAY
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 MPH.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS...WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF GUAM ON TUESDAY.

SINCE OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE PEAK MONTHS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
MICRONESIA...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK DISTURBANCES CAN
QUICKLY INTENSIFY THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED ON SHORT
NOTICE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

- NWS-Guam